Long COVID bill lingers
Print
Long COVID cost the Australian economy nearly $10 billion in 2022, new analysis shows.
New research sheds light on the profound impact of long COVID on the nation’s workforce and economy.
Long COVID - where people experience symptoms for months after recovering from an initial COVID-19 infection - led to a substantial loss in labour productivity, according to modelling conducted by The Kirby Institute at UNSW Sydney, The Australian National University (ANU), and the University of Melbourne.
The study found that long COVID was responsible for about 100 million lost work hours in 2022, equivalent to 0.5 percent of Australia's GDP for that year.
This loss equates to an average reduction of eight hours of work per employed person, translating to an average economic impact of $7,385 per affected individual.
The economic toll of long COVID was most pronounced among working-age adults, particularly those aged 30 to 49.
Workers in this age group accounted for more than half of the total lost work hours, with those aged 30-39 contributing 27.5 million lost hours and those aged 40-49 contributing 24.5 million.
This demographic is not only vital to the economy but also the most likely to be affected by long COVID due to higher rates of infection.
The research employed a mathematical model known as a susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model, which estimated the number of Australians likely to suffer from long COVID after a single COVID-19 infection.
By analysing serosurvey data from 2022 to 2024, the researchers projected how long COVID would impact different age groups over time.
They also developed a labour supply model to estimate the reduction in work hours and its impact on Australia's GDP.
The study concluded that long COVID significantly affected working-age adults, particularly those aged 30 to 49, leading to substantial economic losses - estimated at $9.6 billion in 2022 due to reduced labour productivity.
The authors say the study likely underestimates the full economic impacts because it does not account for losses such as healthy employees who cannot work because they are caring for others with long COVID.
It also does not factor in the impact of reinfections, or the long-term economic consequences.
The researchers say their study underscores the need for a shift in public health policy. Current COVID-19 health strategies in Australia predominantly focus on preventing hospitalisations and deaths from acute COVID-19.
However, the long-term effects of COVID-19, particularly long COVID, pose a significant threat to public health and economic stability.
“Widespread COVID-19 infection means that even a small percentage of chronic COVID-related illness and disability will impact population health, especially working adults,” says Professor Raina MacIntyre from UNSW.
The study's findings suggest that long COVID could be among the leading causes of disease burden in Australia, comparable to conditions like coronary heart disease, which affects about 3 per cent of the population.
The study advocates for a stronger focus on preventing and managing long COVID through broader public health measures.
These include improving indoor air quality, encouraging mask use during COVID-19 waves, and expanding access to vaccines and antiviral treatments.
The researchers emphasise that long COVID should be a critical consideration in policy decisions, particularly concerning vaccine eligibility and the allocation of health resources.